Predicting (and Overthinking) the Winners of the 2024 Game Awards
Astro Bot by Team Asobi and Sony
I’ve been fascinated by awards shows for the last 15 years. Not just how they’re assembled but how hopefuls typically begin campaigning full seasons in advance. By the time they make their way to the podium, hanging tears and beaming smiles, it’s often not just about the “thing” they’re celebrating any more. I haven’t seen anyone tackle the Game Awards with the same level of scrutiny. Believe it or not, they do hand out awards between all those WORLD PREMIERE trailers, and I’m going to attempt to predict the winners using similar methods.
I haven’t finished every game (I doubt even the most hardcore voters have played the full list of nominations to completion) but like the Oscars (which the Game Awards so desperately wants to be) we can make educated guesses based on the narratives that have formed around each title, release windows, the reputation of the people who worked on them, history, and the least important factor of them all, overall quality.
The following analysis is based on what I think is going to win, not what I feel is the most deserving.
Buckle up, this is going to be a long one.
Best Ongoing Game
Nominees:
Destiny 2
Diablo IV
Final Fantasy XIV
Fortnite
Helldivers 2
Final Fantasy XIV feels like a safe bet.
It got a new expansion in July and has beaten most of the other nominees in this category before (but not last year, so we can pretend like it’s due). Helldivers is a legitimate contender, but it’s only been out since February so I’m not sure how “ongoing” it actually is (don’t worry, we’re going to talk more about Helldivers in just a moment).
Winner: Final Fantasy XIV
Best Community Support
Nominees:
Baldur’s Gate 3
Final Fantasy XIV
Fortnite
Helldivers 2
No Man’s Sky
Helldivers 2 is a fun success story and it slots into this award perfectly. A win for Baldur’s Gate would speak more to how many people are still playing it and the continued year after year expansions for No Man’s Sky will always be worth commending for bringing that game back from the dead (it’s right there with FFXIV in that regard).
What my pick ultimately came down to is Helldivers is going to be recognized–I’m just not sure how widespread that recognition will be, yet. Its campaign as a multiplayer favorite starts here.
Winner: Helldivers 2
Best Mobile Game
Nominees:
AFK Journey
Balatro
Withering Waves
ZZZ
Pokemon TCGP
Even though I now structure my day around when I’m allowed to open free Pokemon packs, Balatro is going to win this category and it’s not particularly close. Porting the most addictive game since Vampire Survivors to phones was bound to happen eventually–but the announcement that they were actually doing it managed to still feel like a stroke of genius.
The title that people on Twitter are derisively calling “just a card game” is going to have a very good night.
Winner: Balatro
Best AR/VR Game
Nominees:
Arizona Sunshine Remake
Asgard’s Wrath II
Batman: Arkham Shadow
Metal Hellsinger VR
Metro Awakening VR
VR is still niche and I don’t know how much of the voting body can even put on a headset without feeling queasy. I don’t have a dedicated room for violently swinging my limbs around, but I’m picking Batman because it has the Arkham pedigree and its developer, Camouflaj, has a solid track record.
Winner: Batman: Arkham Shadow
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth by Square Enix
Best Performance
Nominees:
Briana White as Aerith Gainsborough in Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Hannah Telle as Max Caulfield in Life is Strange: Double Exposure
Humberly Gonzalez as Kay Vess in Star Wars Outlaws
Luke Roberts as James Sunderland in Silent Hill 2
Melina Juergens as Senua in Hellblade II
Luke managed to exceed expectations in a role weighed down by cultural baggage while Briana represents the best thing about the Final Fantasy remakes–added depth and charming character moments that have improved the original cast by the same margin as the graphics. Her performance is justice for Aerith. If they’d included Tifa’s voice actor, Britt Baron, in this list, it would have created more interesting drama (they should have forced the voters to decide once and for all who is best girl). Interestingly, neither of the female leads were nominated for the first game in the planned trilogy in 2020.
Melina won in 2017 for playing the same role, but it would be weird for her to repeat in a game people seem to like less than the original.
The tiebreaker, for me, was simply based on the thought that more people care about Final Fantasy VII than Silent Hill.
Winner: Briana White
Best Score and Music
Nominees:
Astro Bot
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Metaphor: ReFantazio
Silent Hill 2
Stellar Blade
This is one of the more difficult categories to pick through.
Final Fantasy and Silent Hill 2 are mostly reimaginings of older work–but they are reimaginings of arguably two of the ten best soundtracks ever composed.
I’ve been listening and relistening to the nominees all week, and I actually find Metaphor’s score the least compelling (I’d describe it as leaning into generic, epic fantasy more than the strangeness in Shoji Meguro’s past work). It’s not bad, but it doesn’t stand out.
Part of me wants to zag and pick Stellar Blade because many feel the score is the best part of that game–but in the end, I can’t overlook the scope and excellence of Final Fantasy.
Winner: Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Best Audio Design
Nominees:
Astro Bot
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II
Silent Hill 2
Audio design thrives in the horror genre and it’s going to be a tough show for one of the best remakes ever put together. If anyone wants to speculate where my allegiances lie, I’d vote for Silent Hill 2 in almost everything. It needs to be recognized, and this category is a no-brainer.
Winner: Silent Hill 2
Best Adaptation
Nominees:
Arcane
Fallout
Knuckles
Like a Dragon: Yakuza
Tomb Raider: The Legend of Lara Croft
Arcane is going to win. Lock it in. Season 2 is airing now and the show as a whole is already an early contender for the best thing made this decade. People enjoyed Fallout and I’ll never underestimate the furry voting block–but they never stood a chance.
Winner: Arcane
Metaphor: ReFantazio by Studio 0, Sega, and Atlus
Best Narrative
Nominees:
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth
Metaphor: ReFantazio
Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II
Silent Hill 2
We’re already familiar with the stories of FFVII and Silent Hill 2.
Granted, the story Final Fantasy VII is telling is very different from the one it spun decades ago. Silent Hill also handles its dark material beautifully–but both of these are still going to carry that remake stigma. A remake hasn’t even been nominated in this category since 2020 (that was, you guessed it, Final Fantasy VII), and it lost to The Last of Us Part II.
People are head over heels for Metaphor and its subject matter is topical, but it’s very long and Infinite Wealth (also very long) has the benefit of having dropping in January (Metaphor was released on October 11th). I’ve never met a person who wasn’t cheering for the success of the Like a Dragon franchise and this entry brings both of its protagonists together.
I think this would probably be considered a major upset, but I’m going with my gut.
Winner: Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth
Best Multiplayer
Nominees:
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Helldivers 2
Warhammer 40K: Space Marine 2
Super Mario Party Jamboree
Tekken 8
Tekken will win Best Fighting Game but, even as a legendary franchise, I’m not sure how far its influence extends beyond its own community. People seem to really like Space Marine 2 but I feel Helldivers 2 hacks through that recency bias and picks up another win.
Winner: Helldivers 2
Best Sports/Racing Game
Nominees:
F1 24
EA Sports FC 25
NBA 2K25
Topspin 2K25
WWE 2K24
I haven’t read a review for any of these or seen any content from them on my various timelines (though it’s interesting that College Football 25 was left off the list during its big return year). I’m picking NBA 2K25 solely because you can play as Caitlin Clark and I’ll never underestimate her or her popularity.
Winner: NBA 2K25
Best Fighting Game
Nominees:
Dragon Ball: Sparking Zero
Granblue Fantasy Versus: Rising
Marvel vs. Capcom Fighting Collection: Arcade Classics
Multiversus
Tekken 8
Dragon Ball has a vocal fanbase but it doesn’t have Harada. Tekken 8 is also one of the highest reviewed games of the year and had the second most entrants at EVO over the summer. People love Marvel vs. Capcom, it’s more likely that would play spoiler (it’s the first time Capcom has been able to accessibly “take us for a ride” in years).
Winner: Tekken 8
Best Family Game
Nominees:
Astro Bot
Princess Peach: Showtime!
Super Mario Party Jamboree
The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom
The Plucky Squire
Nintendo rules this category, and when they don’t it’s typically for a title you wouldn’t imagine actually playing with your family (like It Takes Two). There is a path for Mario Party (because it’s the best entry in the franchise) or Zelda (because it’s Zelda) to snatch the win away–but I’m picking the charming Astro Bot because as social media seemed to unanimously agree upon release, Sony managed to out-Nintendo Nintendo.
Winner: Astro Bot
Innovation in Accessibility
Nominees:
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Diablo IV
Dragon Age: The Veilguard
Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown
Star Wars Outlaws
The specifics of how each of these titles has innovated is a mystery to me (I usually rely on the sizzle reel before the winner is announced to do the heavy lifting). I’m (almost) blindly choosing Prince of Persia because it was a critical darling early in the year, but the team was recently disbanded when it “failed to meet sales expectations” (like every franchise being mismanaged in 2024). This will be a small consolation. Let them make a new Rayman to celebrate.
Winner: Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown
Games for Impact
Nominees:
Closer the Distance
Indika
Neva
Life is Strange: Double Exposure
Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II
Tales of Kenzera: Zau
As fun as it would be to see something as strange as Indika walk away with a win, Tales of Kenzera has a history with the Game Awards and its studio received an outpouring of support from industry this year. Geoff loves “moments,” and an emotional speech from the creator feels inevitable at this point (I don’t mean this as cynically as it reads).
Winner: Tales of Kenzara: Zau
Best Sim/Strategy Game
Nominees:
Age of Mythology Retold
Frostpunk 2
Manor Lords
Kunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddess
Unicorn Overlord
This feels like a race between Frostpunk 2 (the nominee with the best marketing), Manor Lords (a pleasant indie surprise), and Unicorn Overlord (the highest rated). Despite its acclaim and gorgeous art style (shout-out to Vanillaware), I don’t think people know that Unicorn Overlord is a new take on Ogre Battle. And when a category is niche and could come down to a coin flip, I lean towards the title that most voters are probably familiar with.
Winner: Frostpunk 2
Balatro by LocalThunk
Best Independent Game
Nominees:
Animal Well
Balatro
Lorelei and the Laser Eyes
Neva
UFO 50
I’m going to take this opportunity to tell you to go play Crow Country and the too smart for its own good UFO 50.
It was a remarkable year for indies. As such, I expect the jury to ignore the contradiction of “best indie” and “best debut indie” not being the same game. If they’re going to spread the wealth and split the wins, this is the slate to do it.
In that light, picking a winner here is easy. After all, only one of these is also up for Game of the Year.
Winner: Balatro
Best Debut Indie Game
Nominees:
Animal Well
Balatro
Manor Lords
Pacific Drive
The Plucky Squire
I’m running with my theory that in a year without a clear number one overall title, the goal is to award more things to increase visibility. Plucky Squire and Pacific Drive are both divisive. Animal Well was being called a masterpiece on par with Outer Wilds at release, the fact that no one has talked about it since June (even with a recent Xbox release) shouldn’t prevent it from sneaking past Balatro for its only statuette.
Now that I’ve locked it in, Balatro really is going to sweep and make me look dumb, huh?
Winner: Animal Well
Most Anticipated Game
Nominees:
Death Stranding 2: On the Beach
Ghost of Yotei
Grand Theft Auto VI
Metroid Prime 4: Beyond
Monster Hunter Wilds
Unless there are Game Awards shenanigans, Most Anticipated belongs to Grand Theft Auto VI. The only factor that I could see changing this outcome is we’ve only received one trailer for it so far. This is a pro Kojima crowd and Monster Hunter is on everyone’s mind because we’ll be able to play it in just a couple months (both Wilds and DS2 will be favorites for GOTY next December), but ultimately I couldn’t be swayed from Rockstar’s next because GTA is arguably the biggest franchise in all of media and we haven’t had a new one in 11 years.
Winner: Grand Theft Auto VI
Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree by FromSoftware
Best RPG
Nominees:
Dragons Dogma 2
Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth
Metaphor: ReFantazio
Another difficult category.
Dragon’s Dogma 2 released in March to mixed reviews and immediately fizzled out. The conversation around it currently exists solely as people repeatedly saying “I still need to finish that.”
Three of these are up for Game of the Year, and with Infinite Wealth picking up a win in Best Narrative, I’m picking Final Fantasy. If Metaphor or Erdtree wins, we could be in for a night of upsets.
Winner: Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Best Action/Adventure
Nominees:
Astro Bot
Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown
Silent Hill 2
Star Wars Outlaws
The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom
There might be some category fraud at play here.
I’m willing to bet most jury members would identify Astro Bot as a platformer first, but of course, there is no dedicated Best Platformer category. Prince of Persia, Silent Hill 2, and Zelda fit the action adventure mold better, and for that reason, I could easily see one of them stealing a statue away from the face of Sony’s brand (I currently have Nintendo winning zero awards).
But I have to assume no one is thinking that deeply about this and will blindly vote for the title they enjoyed the most.
Winner: Astro Bot
Black Myth: Wukong by Game Science
Best Action
Nominees:
Black Myth: Wukong
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Helldivers 2
Warhammer 40K: Space Marine 2
Stellar Blade
You can’t tell the story of the industry this year without Black Myth. It was a huge commercial success and immediately developed a hardcore fanbase (it had a peak player count of 2.4 million soon after its release).
The way I see it, it needs to be represented somewhere–and it’s not winning Game of the Year.
Winner: Black Myth: Wukong
Misc Esports/Content Creation Categories
While I have nothing against esports, I don’t engage with it beyond using it as background noise. I respect both sides of the argument that they should have their own awards show but also that it’s important to have the winners celebrated on the biggest stage.
It’s also another year--which means another group of content creators I’ve never heard of–which translates to confronting my mortality.
I’m getting old.
Anyway, here are my rapid fire picks based on arbitrary criteria.
Content Creator Winner: Usada Pekora (???)
Best Esports Athlete Winner: Faker (because I actually remember his name trending on Twitter).
Best Esports Team Winner: T1 (because Faker plays for them).
Best Esports Game Winner: League of Legends (it gets the Arcane bump).
Best Game Direction
Nominees:
Astro Bot
Balatro
Black Myth: Wukong
Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Metaphor: ReFantazio
Best Direction is typically about the person as much as the game they’ve made. Who deserves recognition? Who would be fun to have on stage?
Picking the winner in this category is usually a layup, but with the absence of a Hideo Kojima or Sam Lake this year it gets trickier. Miyazaki already has one (for Elden Ring, no less). So we’re actually on the lookout for something flashy with a defined vision–something that would make you say “someone directed the hell out of this thing.” Following that logic, this feels like a toss up between Metaphor and Final Fantasy. Metaphor is the flashier of the two (this will translate to an Art Direction win)–but Final Fantasy is more popular.
Winner: Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Metaphor: ReFantazio by Studio 0, Sega, and Atlus
Best Art Direction
Nominees:
Astro Bot
Black Myth: Wukong
Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree
Metaphor: ReFantazio
Neva
Subtlety doesn’t win you an Art Direction award, and Metaphor IS its art direction. Have you seen the menus and post battle screens that this team puts together?
Astro Bot and Neva are dark horses, but I don’t think Neva has enough presence at the show and Astro would be banking on its cute representations and reimaginings of PlayStation mascots.
Winner: Metaphor: ReFantazio
Game of the Year
Nominees:
Astro Bot
Balatro
Black Myth: Wukong
Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Metaphor: ReFantazio
Unlike the other categories, I’ve power ranked the nominees from what I feel is least likely to most likely to win. We’re almost there!
Black Myth: Wukong
I expect Black Myth to be one of the most divisive GOTY nominations (top two at least, we’ll get to the Elden Ring debacle). It has the lowest Metacritic score of the group at 81 (for comparison, Metaphor, Erdtree, and Astro Bot all have 94s). It won the top prize at the Golden Joystick Awards (fan vote only accounts for 10% here as opposed to 100%, so even if it sweeps those it still has a steep hill to climb). The Game Awards also has international voters, but probably not enough from China specifically to tip the scales in its favor. From my perspective, Black Myth’s nomination has a similar vibe to when a superhero movie makes a push during awards season–it’s wildly popular, but the product is just okay.
Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree
Erdtree just edges out Black Myth for two reasons. First, it’s the best reviewed game of the year. Second, its inclusion is controversial (it’s not a standalone game, it’s DLC for 2022’s Game of the Year winner, Elden Ring–DLC that can’t be accessed until you beat a late game boss). I imagine just as many people are turned off by it being here as there are who are embracing the chaos. Twitter is pissed, but when is it not? At the same time, I imagine the 40ish hours spent in the Land of Shadow are the most addicted many have been by a game in the last 12 months. I know it owned my life for about three weeks.
Metaphor: ReFantazio
The people who have played Metaphor really love Metaphor. And with Sega bragging about having sold over a million copies so far, they’re not in short supply.
There’s been speculation that it might pay an “anime tax” (or worse, a Persona 5 fatigue tax). It also came out on October 11th and it’s very long. The most damning case against it is that it’s likely to split its vote with Final Fantasy (three ways if we include Elden Ring, though that’s a different kind of RPG).
If you feel like picking an underdog (that’s not Balatro), you could do worse than Metaphor.
I think there’s a sizable gap between the top three and bottom three nominations.
Balatro
Balatro has the best gameplay loop out of all the nominees.
It’s more universally loved than FFVII or Astro Bot (or at least has some of the strongest defenders), and without a dominant force like Elden Ring, Tears of the Kingdom, or Baldur’s Gate 3 saturating the discussion on social media for months on end, a lot of people seem content to keep playing their dopamine infused poker game. When the curtains go down and the credits roll, a Balatro win would probably leave the audience with the most faith in the industry.
It was made by one guy–for it to be named the best game of the year would be one hell of a story.
Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Final Fantasy VII is our AAA behemoth this year.
Tim Rogers once said that if you want to win an Oscar, you release your movie at the end of the year–if you want to win Game of the Year Awards, you release in the first half. It’s possible to catch up on the Best Picture nominees in a couple days (or every film nominated in every category in a month–I’ve done this multiple times, it’s a brutal exercise). To truly invest in these RPGs, it takes dedication. Unfortunately for FFVII, it’s been on the market long enough (releasing on February 29th) that people are now arguing its open world sections are actually bloated. Depending on your pov, these could just as easily be seen as an opportunity to spend more time with the characters–maybe the best cast in all of video games.
It also most likely received a bump a couple weeks back because FFVII was the number one draft pick to test out everyone’s new PlayStation 5 Pros, which despite being branded as the first horsemen of the video game apocalypse, a lot of people bought.
It can’t overstated that while I consider myself a Balatro truther–Rebirth has my favorite card game of the year as a side activity.
If it doesn’t win, expect part three (Reunion?) to nearly sweep its categories in a few years.
Astro Bot
Astro Bot’s campaign for Game Award supremacy came when it was revealed as the “one more thing” (and best thing) at a Sony event. You can’t end your showcases with a dud, and the people picking and positioning trailers knew they had something big with their new (newish, I guess) little mascot.
It launched in early September and has managed to stay in the conversation with speedrunning updates (with leaderboards populated by people who actually vote on these things). An Astro Bot win would be viewed as a win for small games (smaller than FFVII, at least). It would also be viewed as a win for the idea that games are meant to be fun first–a victory for the gameplay over narrative crowd. The counterpoint is that Sony is milking its fanboys with a graveyard of dead franchises, but the Game Awards are one big commercial so I’m not sure how much weight that argument carries with this voting body.
Multiple reviewers called it the best 3D platformer since Mario Galaxy–and that’s not nothing.
Winner: Astro Bot
I’ve already rambled for too long to support a proper outro, so I’ll close by saying check back on December 12th to see how poorly I did. I’ll be reporting on the most exciting trailers at the show (I’ll also probably dip into the Day of the Devs and Wholesome Snack that are set to air the same week).
Will Nintendo whisper about their Switch successor? Will Team Cherry finally put us all out of our misery?